No Time to Die earned $3.616 million on its seventh day of release, dropping just 14% from Wednesday and bringing its total up to $75.218 million. The film has earned a decent 1.36x weekend-to-cume multiplier thus far, better than Skyfall (1.33x a $90 million debut). We can expect an over/under 53% drop for a $25 million second-weekend gross, in line with Quantum of Solace (-60% from a $68 million debut against the surprising $69 million launch of Twilight), Skyfall (-53% against the $20 million wide-launch of Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln and the $141 million debut weekend of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II), Spectre (-52% on a mostly competition-free weekend). It would also push it past $100 million domestic by Sunday night.
The film had a running cume of $360 million worldwide as of Wednesday, meaning it added $16.4 million domestic and around $29.6 million overseas over the previous Mon-Wed frame. If that matches up, then the $250 million flick has earned $373 million worldwide thus far, besting the $366 million cume of Tenet (including a still-impressive $305 million overseas last year) and putting on schedule to pass Black Widow ($380 million) today. By the way, with all the hub-hub over whether the mere $55 million launch of No Time to Die means that James Bond is no longer a hot commodity, we should remember that the Daniel Craig actioner will pass $400 million worldwide today or tomorrow. It may end the weekend above the unadjusted $437 million global cume of Die Another Day.
That will already make it the fifth-biggest 007 movie ever in unadjusted global grosses, with an almost certain global cume at least above Quantum of Solace ($585 million in 2008) and Casino Royale ($616 million in 2006). Even if it ends up below Spectre ($881 million), and it almost certainly will unless it plays like a Wu Jang star vehicle in China, we’re still in a scenario where the last three 007 movies have been the three biggest ever in global grosses. And even if it ends up closer to $160 million (Die Another Day) than $200 million (Spectre), the 15% Covid loss means the film would have otherwise earned $184 million.
That frankly feels spot on for a “liked but not loved” sequel to the “tolerated but not embraced” Spectre. Likewise, $198 million ($173 million x 1.15) felt right for a lukewarm sequel to Fate of the Furious. Inflation aside, Daniel Craig’s 007 movies ($168 million in 2006, $167 million in 2008, $304 million in 2012, $200 million in 2015 and over/under $160 million in 2021) have been or would have been the five biggest domestic earners in franchise history. It’s not that the James Bond series has gotten “small,” it’s that (to an even greater extent than before) other rival action franchises like the MCU and the Fast Saga have just been bigger domestic and global giants.
Skyfall ($304 million in 2012) sold more tickets in North America than any other Bond flick save for Goldfinger ($56 million in 1964) and Thunderball ($65 million in 1965). Casino Royale ($168 million in 2006) was in the “tickets sold” top ten. Even if Skyfall was a lightning-in-a-bottle fluke (little tentpole competition, rave reviews, scorching buzz, publicity around the 50th anniversary of Dr. No, the Oscar-winning Adele song, etc.), the last several James Bond films have been incredibly successful by the standards of James Bond films. This all goes back to the 25-year debate over whether the 007 series is still commercially relevant, to which the answer is always “Yes.”
We’ll see how well No Time to Die holds up here and abroad, and it should stick around by virtue of being the only non-superhero/horror/sci-fi tentpole for the next many months. No Time to Die may not gross enough to break even theatrically, on account of Covid-related expenses, but it’ll certainly earn enough to die another day. Regardless, No Time to Die will easily pass Godzilla Vs. Kong ($468 million) to become the second-biggest “pandemic era” Hollywood flick behind F9 ($716 million). And if it manages to outgross F9 and take the crown (at least until Spider-Man: No Way Home in December or maybe Eternals next month), then Craig’s tenure may really end on an all-time-high.
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